(Reuters) – Global stock markets fell and the dollar dropped against major currencies on Monday as a partial U.S. government shutdown loomed, with passage of an 11th hour stop-gap spending bill seen as unlikely.
The Democrat-controlled U.S. Senate was poised to reject a Republican funding measure that would delay “Obamacare” health reforms. A simple majority vote was scheduled for shortly after 2 p.m. that would strip Republican amendments and send a “clean” funding bill back to the House of Representatives.
House Speaker John Boehner showed no sign of backing down from Republican insistence on linking a funding bill to a delay in President Barack Obama’s signature health-care law.
If a funding deal was reached soon markets might recover, but a prolonged shutdown could have a major impact on the economy and consumer confidence. As many as 1 million U.S. federal employees could face unpaid furloughs or payless pay-days.
“The size of the sell-off is logical given the stakes,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York.
The dollar last traded 0.45 percent lower against a basket of six major currencies at 80.163 .DXY and was near break-even against the yen, up 0.02 percent at 98.26 yen. The euro rose 0.12 percent at $1.3537.
MSCI’s all-country equity stock index .MIWD00000PUS was down 0.73 percent, while the broad FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 of regional shares closed down a provisional 0.6 percent at 1,247.14.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 109.79 points, or 0.72 percent, at 15,148.45. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 8.87 points, or 0.52 percent, at 1,682.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 9.77 points, or 0.26 percent, at 3,771.83.
Defense names declined, as a prolonged government shutdown would most likely diminish the amount of new contracts being granted. Raytheon Co (RTN.N) fell 1.1 percent to $77.33, and Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) fell 1.2 percent to $127.64, while Boeing Co (BA.N) slipped 2.3 percent to $117.20.
The PHLX defense sector .DFX was off 0.83 percent.
Wall Street has weathered similar incidents in the past. During a shutdown from December 15, 1995, to January 6, 1996, the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent. During the November 13-19, 1995, shutdown, the benchmark index rose 1.3 percent, according to data by Jason Goepfert, president of SentimenTrader.com.
That pattern of gains may not hold this time, given that economic growth continues to be weak. Wall Street may also be ripe for a sell-off, with the S&P near an all-time high after having escaped any sustained pullback so far this year.
In the latest economic data, the Chicago Purchasing Managers index rose more than expected in September, climbing to a reading of 55.7 from 53 the previous month. Analysts were expecting a reading of 54.
Fears of a U.S. government shutdown supported safe-haven demand for bonds, sending benchmark yields to their lowest in seven weeks.
U.S. government debt was on track to post its first monthly gain since April and to eke out its first quarterly rise since a year ago, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“The best way to say what the market is doing right now is that it’s pricing in a partial government shutdown,” said John Herrmann, director of interest rates strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities in New York.
U.S. Treasuries prices fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond off 3/32 in price to yield 2.6372 percent.
Brent crude oil fell, heading for its first monthly decline since May, as the looming U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook for demand, while tensions over Iran continued to ease.
Brent was down 83 cents to $107.80 a barrel. U.S. crude was down $1.14 at $101.73 a barrel.
(Additional reporting by Richard Hubbard in London, and Ryan Vlastelica and Richard Leong in New York; Editing by Dan Grebler and Leslie Adler)