The instant reaction to quarterback Robert Griffin III being benched for the second time in two seasons by two Washington Redskins coaches is that Griffin essentially is done in D.C., that his stunningly swift descent from rookie-year NFL star to third-season disappointment is complete, and now it’s time to begin contemplating what the team can recoup during the upcoming offseason for a player it gave up so much to get.
That very well might be true. Griffin and the Redskins indeed could part ways after the season. The Redskins could end up taking far, far less than the king’s ransom — three first-round draft picks and a second-round selection — they sent to the St. Louis Rams for the second-overall choice in the 2012 NFL draft used on Griffin.
But the Redskins had better be careful about giving up on Griffin, some people in and around the sport cautioned Wednesday.
“I don’t know if you can say that,” former Redskins and Houston Texans GM Charley Casserly said when asked if Griffin’s tenure in Washington is, in effect, over. “To me, the only ones who can say that are the head coach, the owner and the GM. We’ve seen it happen before that guys have been benched and came back to succeed. It happened with [Terry] Bradshaw. It happened with Phil Simms. They were benched at critical points in their career and came back to lead their teams to Super Bowls. So historically it can happen.
“But here, what matters is this: Does this coaching staff believe he can succeed in their offensive system, the way they want to coach it? Or are they willing to adapt their system to be one where he can succeed with his skill set? Right now, the answer to both of those questions is no. The arrow is definitely pointing down.”
It certainly is, with the decision by Jay Gruden, the first-year coach of the Redskins, to sit down Griffin this week in favor of Colt McCoy. Former Redskins coach Mike Shanahan sat down Griffin for the final three games of last season and started Kirk Cousins, saying at the time he wanted to avoid Griffin getting hurt.
Griffin was the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year in 2012 when Shanahan and his son Kyle, then the team’s offensive coordinator, designed an offense for him that borrowed elements from the college game, such as the pistol formation and option-style running plays.
Practically everyone acknowledged from the outset Griffin wouldn’t last in the NFL playing like he did as a rookie, that the amount of running he did had to be curbed over time and he needed to develop into a reliable pocket passer at this level. Mike Shanahan spoke of the need for Griffin to learn to protect himself better by throwing the ball away and sliding at the end of runs. Other observers said Griffin could thrive early in his career with that style but would have to gradually put it aside.
But since his rookie season, Griffin has dealt with two significant injuries and has failed to recapture his 2012 magic. His rookie season ended with a major knee injury during the Redskins’ playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks. He missed time this season because of a dislocated ankle. When he did play this season, he wasn’t productive in Gruden’s version of the West Coast offense.
Even so, former San Francisco 49ers offensive lineman Randy Cross said Wednesday he doesn’t think the Redskins should abandon hope yet of Griffin developing into a dependable NFL starter. Cross said the Redskins must remain patient because Griffin had to make one significant adjustment to a pro-style passing game coming out of college, and another major adjustment this season to Gruden’s system.
“I wouldn’t think so,” Cross said on the issue of whether the Redskins should move on from Griffin. “If you have someone who can run this offense better, fine. Let RGIII sit and watch that for now and learn. If there’s a problem in the locker room or off the field, that’s different. You can’t have that. But if that’s not it, you should let it play out longer.”
The Redskins must decide by May 3 whether to exercise their fifth-year option for the 2016 season in Griffin’s rookie contract. It’s an expensive option, worth an estimated $16 million to $18 million for that season. It is virtually impossible to see the Redskins committing that kind of money to Griffin at this point. But even if the Redskins decline to exercise that option, Griffin remains under contract to the team through the 2015 season. The rules of the NFL’s rookie compensation system allow the Redskins to try to negotiate a new deal with Griffin after this season.
Attempting to trade Griffin after this season potentially could be problematic for the Redskins. There is the issue of whether the team has a viable long-term replacement on the roster. McCoy engineered an uplifting Monday night triumph at Dallas this season. But he’s on his third NFL team and did not prove to be the answer in Cleveland, where he was the Browns’ starter for a stretch. Cousins failed to take advantage of the opportunity he had this season to stake his claim to the starting job.
And what could the Redskins get for Griffin? Certainly it’s nothing close to what the Redskins gave the Rams to get him. But Casserly said the notion Griffin’s worth has been reduced to next to nothing is exaggerated. If the Redskins were to be patient, Casserly said, a quarterback-needy team likely would end up being unable to land any of its other options.
“The team that takes him, the first discussion they have to have is: ‘His skill set, is that something we want to coach? Does that work in our offense? If not, are we willing to adapt our offense to make it work?’” Casserly said. “You can take a gamble. But you don’t want to give up too much to take that gamble. It’s hard to imagine they could get a first[-round pick] for him. But maybe a second.
“It happens every year that some team that needs a quarterback doesn’t get the guy they want. That’s when the market for him would develop. That happens every year.”
A front office executive with one NFL team said Wednesday he, too, is convinced Griffin still would have significant trade value, even with his injuries and his recent struggles in Washington.
Obviously you’re not gonna recoup what you laid out to get him,” the executive said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “But maybe a two? Maybe a couple twos? Who knows? I don’t know if anyone would do a one. That’s probably a stretch now. But supply and demand dictates that he still has value.”
Griffin’s talent would remain attractive to teams whose decision-makers would wonder if Griffin could steady himself with a fresh start elsewhere, that front office executive said.
“I think he does have value,” the executive said. “The question is where he is physically with the injuries. His legs were such a big part of what he did as a rookie. The arm is still there. He still has potential. He had success as a young player. He missed an offseason [while recovering from knee surgery after his rookie season] in his development. Could he get to a place where he could stabilize things? Maybe he could.”
However, an agent who does not represent any of the Redskins’ quarterbacks said he thinks other NFL teams regard Griffin as damaged goods, both in terms of the soundness of his legs and his reputation as a player, and expressed the view that Griffin would not generate significant trade offers.
“I don’t think they could get anything more than a mid-round pick,” the agent said. “Maybe more like a late-round pick. They’ve made it clear he’s not valuable to them. So why would he be valuable to anyone else?”