David Cameron will travel to Scotland today to sign a “historic” agreement to give the Scottish people a referendum on independence – but only after a pointed visit to a shipyard where a new Navy aircraft carrier is being built.
The Prime Minister will go to Edinburgh to announce the details of the deal with First Minister Alex Salmond, which is expected to give voters over the age of 16 a say in 2014 over whether Scotland should remain in the 305-year-old Union with England.
However, in what is being seen as a veiled warning to the electorate, Mr Cameron will also visit the Rosyth shipyard in Fife, where the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth is being assembled.
The move is intended to underline the investment of billions of pounds that the Westminster government makes in Scotland, and the security advantages of remaining part of the United Kingdom. Last month, Iain Duncan Smith, the Work and Pensions Secretary, warned that an independent Scotland would not be able to afford its welfare bill.
Mr Duncan Smith said the annual benefit and pensions bill in Scotland was almost twice as much as the revenue raised each year from North Sea oil and gas.
Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, also claimed that official figures showed that almost nine out of 10 Scottish households took more from the public purse than they contribute in taxes.
An ICM poll earlier this year showed that more people backed Scottish independence in England than in Scotland.
The Scottish vote comes despite no such referendum being offered south of the border.
Today’s meeting follows months of negotiations in which Mr Salmond has apparently succeeded in securing his preferred timetable for the referendum — autumn 2014 — but lost the option of a second question on the ballot paper.
Mr Salmond had wanted a question on so-called “devo max” — devolution of further powers from London to Scotland. This was thought to have included the power to raise taxes and control many other areas of public spending.
Mr Cameron said: “This marks the beginning of an important chapter in Scotland’s story, and allows the real debate to begin. It is now up to the people of Scotland to make that historic decision. The very future of Scotland depends on their verdict.” Mr Salmond said that the agreement was an important step toward independence.
But Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former Scottish Secretary and Foreign Secretary, said the deal was a defeat for Mr Salmond, and his failure to secure an “extra powers” question was by far the most important concession.
Michael Moore, the Scottish Secretary, said he was confident that voters would decide to remain in the UK.
The most recent poll on independence suggests support for leaving the UK has dropped. A survey of 995 adults, published last week, showed support for the Union at 53 per cent, compared with support for independence at 28 per cent.