Yoopya with The Conversation
Germany could be heading into an election even sooner than expected after chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that he may be willing to make concessions to bring forward a confidence vote already scheduled for January 15.
The vote, which is presumed to become a trigger for an election, was called for the new year after Scholz’s coalition government collapsed. But he has now indicated that he may concede to pressure from other parties to hold the confidence vote before Christmas. In a TV interview on November 10, he said: “If everyone sees it that way, it’s not a problem”.
When Scholz, as expected, loses the confidence vote, parliament would almost certainly be dissolved within 21 days and elections held within a further 60 days. If the original timetable held, the expectation is Germany would vote in late March. If the vote takes place before Christmas, the election will take place even sooner, possibly mid-February.
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian democratic (CDU/CSU) opposition, is leading the charge for an earlier vote. The CDU/CSU is comfortably ahead in the polls and has promised to enable key legislation to pass in exchange for an immediate vote. Scholz has so far resisted and seems keen to have time to gear up for the election campaign. But he may be heading towards compromise.
How the government fell apart
The three-party German coalition between Scholz’s social democratic SPD, the Greens and the market-liberal FDP has had an unhappy time. Events served to accentuate policy differences: in particular, the war in Ukraine and resulting energy crisis heightened tensions between the fiscally hawkish FDP pressing for balanced budgets and the pro-investment SPD and Greens. Disagreements were also evident over climate, transport and energy policy. The FDP is the only one of the three parties that is pro-nuclear.
Matters got worse after a federal constitutional court verdict set major restrictions on government borrowing by imposing a rigid interpretation of constitutional debt restrictions. A downward revision of tax revenue forecasts last month then made things instantly worse.
These challenges have led to an unhealthy cycle of political bickering. Germany has regular state elections, and for the most part the three coalition partners have done badly in these since coming to power. Most recently, three eastern states delivered record election results for the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD). After each such defeat, party leaders have felt compelled to raise their own profile by making policy demands in line with their priorities. But in doing so, they have added to the impression of a chaotic, disunited government. A recent Deutschlandtrend poll showed just 14% of citizens satisfied with the government against 85% who were dissatisfied.
Things came to a head when FDP leader and finance minister Christian Lindner tabled a list of demands of his coalition partners – with major tax and spending cuts – that he knew were certain to be rejected. Coalition leaders met on Wednesday but there was no agreement, leading Scholz to dismiss Lindner, effectively bringing the coalition to a close. There was a bitter exchange of views, with Scholz calling Lindner “petty” and “irresponsible”. The timing of the FDP’s exit, just after Donald Trump’s US election victory, when stability would have been preferred, came in for particular criticism.
For the interim period between now and the anticipated election, Scholz has reshuffled his cabinet, appointing a new finance minister, Jörg Kukies, from his own party. One of the FDP’s ministers, Volker Wissing, refused to follow Lindner’s lead and has remained in the cabinet. He will continue as transport minister and will add justice to his brief. The Green agriculture minister will also look after education.
In these circumstances, it is possible that the parliament cannot agree a budget for the 2025 calendar year, and would roll over existing spending plans, which is not unusual (indeed, it happened at the start of this year after the constitutional court verdict meant the 2024 budget had to be rewritten), but normally for a shorter time. It would be possible to make available additional funds for Ukraine and it is unlikely the other parties in parliament would block these – although the CDU/CSU has indicated it wouldn’t support the SPD’s proposal to suspend constitutional debt restrictions to make extra defence funding available.
How the election could unfold
A snap poll has indicated strong support for early elections. As things stand, the most likely outcome is a CDU/CSU led government under CDU leader Friedrich Merz with the SPD as junior coalition partner.
The AfD is currently second in the polls but all parties have ruled out any sort of coalition deal with them. Back in 2021, it seemed possible there would be a CDU/CSU-Green coalition (as has been quite widely practised at a state level). But, under Merz, the CDU has shifted rightwards and engaged in such a lot of green-bashing that such a move seems unlikely, even if it commanded a majority (which, according to current polls it will not). The FDP is in a battle for survival, with current polls not even giving it the 5% of votes needed to qualify for representation in parliament. The left populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) looks set to enter the parliament for the first time.
It is remarkable that the EU’s largest member state chose to collapse its government just hours after the continent was given the huge challenge of a Trump presidency. But constitutional mechanisms exist to keep German politics ticking over. The most likely outcome of the elections – a CDU/CSU coalition with the SPD – is a tried and tested model that will offer at least some stability.
Author:
Ed Turner | Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University