An Israeli think tank with close links to the government has begun preparing for a nuclear Iran, a signal that Israel may be abandoning hope of stopping the Islamic Republic from building a bomb.
In a war game that included former military chiefs, ambassadors and intelligence officials, the Institute for National Security Studies tried to strategise how Israel could respond the day after Iran successfully tested a nuclear weapon, it was reported last night.
The INSS is led by a former chief of military intelligence and its decision to carry out the study gives some indication of thinking within Israel’s government. A copy of its findings were sent to Binyamin Netanyahu, The Times reported.
According to minutes of the report, the US would propose a defence pact with Israel, but would urge it not to retaliate.
Russia would seek an alliance with the US to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region, although Saudi Arabia would likely pursue its own nuclear programme, the report concluded based on current policies.
INSS specialists believe that an Iranian test in January 2013 would follow increasingly provocative demands by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime, including the redrawing of its Iraqi borders and action against the vessels of the US Fifth Fleet.
“The simulation showed that Iran will not forgo nuclear weapons, but will attempt to use them to reach an agreement with the major powers that will improve its position,” said a passage of the report.
“The simulation showed that (the Israeli military option), or the threat of using it, would also be relevant following an Iranian nuclear test,” it added.
Israel condemned intelligence chief Meir Dagan last June after he speculated that Iran may obtain nuclear weaponry.
Conclusions from the simulation have been sent to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Times reported.
Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is for exclusively peaceful purposes, has repeatedly said it will not abandon uranium enrichment despite four rounds of UN Security Council resolutions calling on Tehran to desist.