(Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Nayef, a hawkish interior minister who crushed al Qaeda in the world’s top oil exporter, died on Saturday eight months after becoming heir to the throne, paving the way for a more reform-minded successor.
As with previous successions, the selection process is likely to be smooth, with King Abdullah and a family council expected to start work on the appointment of a new crown prince swiftly.
Nayef’s most likely successor as crown prince is the pragmatic Prince Salman, 76, a brother of King Abdullah who was made defence minister in November after more than five decades as Riyadh governor, analysts and diplomats in the kingdom said.
Nayef’s elevation to crown prince after the death of his brother Sultan last year had alarmed moderates and liberals who feared he would stop reforms set in train by his brother Abdullah if he became king.
“With deep sorrow and grief… King Abdullah mourns his brother… Crown Prince Nayef who passed to the mercy of God on Saturday outside the kingdom,” said a royal court statement.
A source close to the royal family said Nayef had died suddenly in Geneva after receiving treatment for a knee complaint. He was thought to be 78.
His death was not expected to trigger any major changes to the kingdom’s energy policy or to key relationships with the United States and other allies.
“The fundamental principle that the Saudis operate under is stability,” said Robert Jordan, U.S. ambassador to Riyadh from 2001-03. “So they will, I’m sure, develop a consensus among the senior members of the family over an orderly succession. That has likely been forming in recent months in any event,” he said.
FUTURE DIRECTION
At stake is the future direction of a country that possesses more than one fifth of proven global oil reserves.
Seen as a key ally for the West, Saudi Arabia has provided critical intelligence to foil al Qaeda plots, bankrolled pro-Western Arab governments and has supported Washington’s attempts to isolate Iran.
To liberals, Nayef, a son of the state’s founder, was the forbidding face of a conservative establishment that opposed any real moves toward democracy or greater women’s rights, oversaw the fearsome religious police and, for years, headed an Interior Ministry which imprisoned political activists without charge.
He was regarded as closer than many of his brothers to the hard-line Wahhabi religious establishment whose support was vital to his father’s establishment of the state in the early 20th century. As a result, he enjoyed particular favor with the clergy who help provide legitimacy to the royal house.
Reputed to be a hard-line conservative, he is thought to have blocked some of King Abdullah’s cautious social and economic reforms and to have promised to block any moves towards democracy.
In his 37 years as interior minister, he developed a formidable security force that crushed al Qaeda but also locked up some political activists.
On his watch, the conservative kingdom emerged from last year’s Arab uprisings looking like one of the most stable states in the Middle East.
“He supervised the security affairs of the state for more than 30 years. He scored a lot of successes there. Especially in fighting al Qaeda,” said Khalid al-Dakhil, a Saudi analyst.
UNKNOWN QUANTITY
Analysts said Nayef’s death meant King Abdullah was likely to call on the family Allegiance Council, which he formed in 2005, to affirm his choice of a new crown prince, probably in the coming days.
Prince Salman has long been viewed as the next most senior royal family member after the late Nayef. If he became king, analysts believe he would continue King Abdullah’s cautious reforms.
“Salman will take over as crown prince and it will be seamless. I don’t see any major ramifications,” said Theodore Karasik, a security analyst for the Dubai-based INEGMA group.
Since King Abdullah is already 89, his crown prince would probably assume a major role in state affairs quickly.
Salman had served as Riyadh governor for five decades, a position that gave him considerable experience dealing with foreign diplomats, tribal leaders and important clerics, three important constituencies for any Saudi leader.
However, he is seen as something of an unknown quantity politically.
“It appeared to me he had a good handle on the delicate balancing act he had to do to move society forward while being respectful of its traditions and conservative ways,” Jordan, the former U.S. ambassador to Riyadh, said.
Saudi Arabia does not practice official mourning periods or close government offices after the death of a senior royal.
However, when Crown Prince Sultan died last October there was a three-day condolences period when foreign dignitaries and tribal and religious leaders paid their respects to King Abdullah before his new heir was announced.
After Nayef’s death, state TV played Koranic verses and aired footage of pilgrims circling the great mosque in Mecca, Islam’s holiest site, where Nayef will be buried on Sunday.
INTERIOR MINISTER
In a statement, British Prime Minister David Cameron expressed his government’s condolences over Nayef’s death, praising his “leadership and dedication”.
The king of neighboring Bahrain and Kuwait ordered three-day mourning periods, state news agencies reported.
Nayef’s younger half brother Prince Ahmed, who is deputy interior minister, is seen as a likely candidate to take over the interior ministry portfolio, while his son, Mohammed, is another contender.
Like his brothers King Abdullah and Salman, Nayef was one of the nearly 40 sons of Saudi Arabia’s founder, King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, who established the kingdom in 1935.
King Abdullah in May hosted a summit for Gulf Arab leaders and has looked well, if tired, in recent television appearances, but in October had his third round of back surgery in 12 months.
Although most Saudi watchers say it is very likely that Salman will become the kingdom’s leader after King Abdullah, it is uncertain who would then be seen as next in line.
Although nearly 20 of King Abdulaziz’s sons are still alive, few have the requisite experience to lead the country.
Under Saudi law, the line of sons must be exhausted before moving on a generation. But it might be seen as embarrassing for elder grandsons, who come first in the official line of precedence, to be overruled by their younger uncles.
Mecca Governor Prince Khaled al-Faisal, a son of the late King Faisal and brother to Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, is seen as a contender among the next generation.
Another is Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Eastern Province Governor Prince Mohammed bin Fahd.
Under succession rules drawn up six years ago, a new king has to nominate his choice of crown prince for approval by a family “allegiance” council.
Although the council was involved in the appointment of Nayef as crown prince in October, it is not clear whether it voted on Abdullah’s choice or was simply informed of it.
(Reporting by Angus McDowall; Additional reporting by Amena Bakr; Editing by Sami Aboudi, Samia Nakhoul and Andrew Osborn)