Scepticism the main challenger in Algeria election

By Christian Lowe and Hamid

Ould Ahmed

ALGIERS (Reuters) – Algeria votes on Thursday in a parliamentary election its rulers hope will deflect

pressure for change after the “Arab Spring” upheavals, but many people will show their scepticism by

abstaining.

Last year’s revolts in the region left

Algeria largely untouched, but it is now under pressure to reform and renew the ageing establishment that has ruled the

country without interruption since independence from France half a century ago.

The authorities in Algeria, which

supplies about a fifth of Europe’s imported natural gas, have responded by promising a steady transition towards more

democracy, starting with Thursday’s vote.

The election is likely to be the fairest and most transparent in 20 years,

even though diplomats say it could be flawed. It is expected to give the biggest share of seats in parliament to moderate

Islamists, mirroring the trend since the “Arab Spring” in countries such as Egypt and Tunisia.

In a speech on Tuesday,

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 75, appealed to the country’s young people to vote and embrace the opportunity for

change.

“I’m addressing the young people who must take over the baton because my generation has had its time,” he

said. “The country is in your hands. Take care of it.”

However, many Algerians distrust the promises of reform. The

election is shaping up to be less a contest between political parties and more a tug-of-war between the authorities and a

large contingent who think voting is pointless.

“No one deserves my vote. I have been living in a two-room apartment

with my five children for years. This election is no different from previous ones. I’m sure it will change nothing,” said

Abdelghani, a 46-year-old worker at a coffee shop.

Others were less vehement, but still not planning to vote. “It’s a

day off. I’ll take advantage of this opportunity to go on a trip with my children,” said Kader, a 37-year-old bank

employee.

LITTLE APPETITE FOR REVOLT

Many Algerians believe elections are futile because real power, they say,

lies with an informal network which is commonly known by the French term “le pouvoir,” or “the power,” and has its roots in

the security forces.

Officials deny this and say the country is run by democratically elected

officials.

Diplomats predict as few as 35 percent of those who are eligible will vote. That would be embarrassing for

the authorities. They had hoped a big turnout would give them fresh legitimacy in a year when lavish celebrations are planned

for the 50th anniversary of independence.

Nevertheless, there is little appetite in Algeria for a revolt. Energy

revenues have lifted living standards, and people look with alarm at the bloodshed in neighbouring Libya after its “Arab

Spring” insurrection.

In Algeria, a conflict in the 1990s between security forces and Islamist insurgents, which

killed an estimated 200,000 people, still casts a shadow. The fighting started after the military-backed government annulled

an election which Islamists were poised to win.

The Islamists set to dominate the 462-seat parliament after

Thursday’s election are a different proposition.

The strongest Islamist bloc, the Green Alliance, are moderates with

close ties to the establishment. Several of their leaders are already government ministers. Bouteflika could appoint one of

them as the next prime minister.

The Islamists are on course to displace two secularist parties, also loyal to the

establishment, who dominate the outgoing parliament.

There are no exit polls, and first results are not expected until

they are unveiled by the Interior Ministry on Friday.

“There is a very strong chance that the Green Algeria alliance

will win a plurality of seats,” said Geoff Porter of North Africa Risk Consulting.

“Islamist leadership in the

parliament, however, is likely to avoid the more difficult issues of political reform, foreign affairs and broader economic

policy,” he said.