Update, 3:30AM: During the late afternoon on Friday, given how rapidly exhibs were adding showtimes following Avengers: Age of Avengers: Age of Ultron Opens ThursdayUltron‘s sold-out time slots, the projection for heavy late night traffic prompted a number of high opening estimates for the Disney Marvel sequel.
Theaters are playing the Joss Whedon film non-stop. At the Hollywood Arclight and New York City’s Regal E-Walk, there’s 43 showtimes today when you can catch the superhero sequel. AMC Burbank and Universal City Citywalk are respectively showing Ultron 35 and 32 times today with the NorthPark in Dallas, Texas boasting 29 showtimes in order to meet moviegoers’ demands.
Per late night returns, it appears as though Ultron will chalk up an estimated $85M, making it second to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2‘s first day of $91.07M and beating the first Avengers which bowed to $80.8M. All these opening figures are propped by Thursday night previews. Ultron had more showtimes than its first chapter since it kicked off earlier at 7PM vs. midnight (in the wake of the Aurora, Colorado shootings, exhibs no longer launch films at midnight). Current FSS bow for Ultron is $202.6M per industry calculations, but that’s incorporating a ding from the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight. That figure would put Ultron second to Avengers’ bow in the all-time B.O. annals.
In the past with some of these big fanboy film openings, there was always concern that the simultaneous release of a popular videogame franchise title would eat into a pic’s business, however, it’s been shown that films and big videogame releases complement each other, read Thor: The Dark World posted a bow of $85.7M which was higher than its first chapter ($65.7M) and wedged between its first and second frames was the $500M single day release of Activision’s Call of Duty: Black Ops 2. But the anticipation is that the boxing match could very well steal guys away from Ultron starting at 9PM ET/6PM PT. While Avengers dipped 14% from Friday into Saturday, some industry estimates are seeing 20% or greater for Ultron.
Still there’s nothing to cry about: Ultron has jumpstarted summer (heck its opening this weekend alone will be 121% above The Amazing Spider-Man 2’s first FSS a year ago of $91.6M). And with an A CinemaScore, the Marvel superhero team sequel is going to play on and on. The first Avengers earned an A+ and finaled at $623.4M stateside, 3X its opening weekend.
While large format and 3D are providing some extra Red Bull to Ultron‘s ticket sales this weekend, the motion-seat 4DX format is another catalyst. It’s a new exhib technology that was wowing during CinemaCon. 4DX is reporting an average of 85% occupancy rates for its Ultron showtimes in the U.S. Furious 7, which is looking at an estimated fifth frame of $7.7M stateside, played in 4DX around the world and recently passed 1M admissions.
In its second frame, Lionsgate’s The Age of Adaline is looking at a 46% decline per industry estimates with $7.2M and a 10-day cume by Sunday of $24.3M. Arthouse crossovers Ex Machina from A24 is on course for $2.3M this weekend, down 57% with a cume by Sunday of $10.8M. A24 plans to add even more screens next weekend after Ultron leaves some breathing room in the market. Weinstein Co.’s Woman in Gold in its fifth sesh continues to hook adults with an anticipated stateside cume of $24.6M by Sunday.
Fox Searchlight’s Far From the Madding Crowd, which earned a wonderful 81% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, is projected to make $191K at 10 hubs for a $19K per theater. Film stars recent Tony best actress nominee Carey Mulligan as a prosperous woman whose heart is torn among three suitors. Pic is based on the Thomas Hardy novel. British period films have traditionally served as solid counter-programming to summer blockbusters with platform releases such as Miramax’s Emma and Sony Classics’ Howards End racking up $22M and $25M respectively.
1). Avengers: Age of Ultron (DIS), 4,276 theaters / $85M* Fri. / 3-day cume: $202.6M / Wk 1
*includes Thursday preview B.O. of $27.6M.
2). Furious 7 (UNI), 3,305 theaters (-503) / $2M Fri. (-57%) / 3-day cume: $7.7M (-57%) / Total cume: $331.9M/ Wk 5
3). The Age of Adaline (LGF), 2,991 theaters (0)/ $2.3M Fri. (-52%)/ 3-day cume: $7.2M (-46%) / Total cume: $24.3M/ Wk 2
4). Paul Blart Mall Cop 2 (SONY), 3,548 theaters (-85)/ $1.7M Fri. (-54%)/ 3-day cume: $6.8M (-54%)/ Total cume: $52.6M / Wk 3
5). Home (FOX/DW), 2,852 theaters (-459) / $945K Fri. (-49%) / 3-day cume: $4M (-49%)/ Total cume: $158.9M / Wk 6
6). Unfriended (UNI), 2,221 theaters (-554) / $770K Fri. (-62%)/ 3-day cume: $2.32M (-62%)/ Total Cume: $28.8M/Wk 3
7). Ex Machina (A24), 1,279 theaters (+24) / $735K Fri. (-57%) / 3-day cume: $2.31M (57%)/ Total cume: $10.8M / Wk 4
8). The Longest Ride (FOX), 2,115 theaters (-1,025) / $564K Fri. (-60%)/ 3-day cume: $1.74M (-59%) / Total cume: $33.2M / Wk 4
9). Woman in Gold (TWC), 1,126 theaters (-855) / $479K Fri. (-48%) / 3-day cume: $1.7M (-49%) / Total cume: $24.6M / Wk 5
10). Get Hard (WB), 1,465 theaters (-811) / $381K Fri. (-64%) / 3-day cume: $1.3M (-64%) / Total cume: $86.3M / Wk 6
Notables:
Uttama Villain (Tami) (PMP), 125 theaters / $180K Fri. / 3-day cume: $551K / Wk 1
Gabbar Is Back (EROS), 107 theaters / $66K Fri. / 3-day cume: $209K / Wk 1
Far From the Madding Crowd (FSL), 10 theaters / $55K Fri. /3-day PSA: $19K / 3-day cume: $191K / Wk 1
Welcome to Me (ALCH), 2 theaters / $13K Fri. /3-day PSA: $20K / 3-day cume: $40K / Wk 1
Previous, 4:50PM: Deadline has received a new updated set of industry estimates showing Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron clocking toward the highest opening single day of all-time with $94M-$97M, blowing away previous champ 2011’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II which made $91.07M. That figure includes the $27.6M from Thursday night shows. Opening FSS for Ultron still speeding toward an all-time bow. We’re hearing as high as $217M-$220M. We’re also hearing that the pre-sales are bigger than anything that Marvel’s ever had. It’s different from Avengers two years ago because that film benefited from walk-up business.
Measuring Ultron’s social media superpowers: RelishMix reports that Avengers social media universe is at 724M ranking as the third most social franchise sitting behind Fast and Furious and The Hunger Games. That breaks down as 492M YouTube Views, 176M Facebook fans and 31M Twitter Followers and subscribers. YouTube videos are being reposted at a rate of 28 to 1 (keep in mind the average is 9 to 1).
Hottest on Facebook is Robert Downey Jr with 24M FB fans as he’s posting native social Facebook videos on his FB page with 7M views in the last 3 weeks.
Chris Hemsworth with 3.8M FB is the second strongest social team player while Samuel L. Jackson has the largest Twitter reach with 4.8M followers. Downey Jr. has 4.36M.
Previous, 1:22 PM: Industry box office estimates see Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Age Of Ultron on track for an $87M opening Friday at Avengers Age of Ultronthe domestic B.O. in 4,275 theaters, inclusive of yesterday’s $27.6M receipts. That would make Ultron the second-highest opening day of all time behind Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part II, which made $91.07M on its first Friday (on its way to a $169.2M weekend). An $87M first Friday for Ultron also pegs it ahead of the first Avengers movie which made $80.8M. The industry estimate for Ultron‘s opening weekend is currently $213M, which of course would make it an all-time stateside record, beating Avengers’ $207.4M. Aggressive estimates see $215M-$220M. Again, these figures become harder as cash drawers close out into the evening.
After Ultron, the spread is pretty wide until we hit No. 2, where insiders see Furious 7 chalking up $8.4M for FSS at 3,305 theaters, repping a fifth-frame slide of 53% and a running stateside cume by Sunday of $332M.
Sony’s Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is estimated to take $7.1M at 3,548 locales, down 52% in its third session for a running cume by Sunday of $52.8M.
Lionsgate’s Blake Lively period romance Age Of Adaline is currently projected at $6.8M at 2,991 venues, down 48% for a 10-day cume of $23.97M.
Fox’s release of DreamWorks Animation’s Home should slot fifth with $4M for FSS, down 50% at 2,852 for a running cume in its sixth week of $158.8M.
PREVIOUS, 7:35 PM: Global haul hits $314.9M after $27.6M Thurday stateside preview. Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Age Of Ultron made $27.6M at Thursday night 7 PM shows, easily outstripping the $18.7M made by Avengers during its late night previews in May 2012. That figure is the sixth-highest on the list of all-time domestic previews with Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 topping it with $43.5M. That film kicked off at midnight previews in July 2011 before posting $91.07M, the highest opening day stateside of all-time. Earlier this month, Furious 7 made $15.8M on its Thursday night kickoff from 7 PM showtimes.
Imax screens recorded a $3M Thursday night record for Age Of Ultron, kicking the $2.3M made by previous record holder Dark Night Rises. Age Of Ultron‘s crowd last night was comprised of 60% men and 40% women, skewing younger with over/under 25 respectively at 45% / 55%. First night premium formats repped 44% of the business (24% 3D, 12% IMAX, 8% PLF).
International for Age Of Ultron is already at $287.3M. Mexico bowed yesterday with $6.8M, the largest opening day in industry history. Age Of Ultron‘s Thursday abroad grossed $31.9M with Korea ($2.6M) and UK ($2M) being the top grossing territories yesterday. Top countries in terms of cumes are Korea ($37.2M), UK ($35.9M), Russia ($20.8M), Brazil ($19.7M), France ($17.6M), Oz ($17.2M), Germany ($13M), India ($11.7M), Italy ($11.6M) and Taiwan ($10.8M).
The Thursday B.O. for Age Of Ultron is wrapped into today’s ticket sales. Confidence remains high in the industry that Avengers: Age Of Ultron is flying toward a domestic opening record this weekend, set to surpass the first installment’s take of $207.4M which was made in May 2012. Imax, premium large format and 4D will be providing extra superpowers to the superhero team pic this weekend. Should Age of Ultron fall short of its all-time record, some think it could be because of the Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao Saturday night fight which kicks off at 9 PM EST/6 PM PST, which could steal guys away, however, the tendency with fanboy pics is that they’re always front-loaded. Avengers highest grossing day was on its first Friday, with $80.8M followed by a $69.6M Saturday (-14%) and a $57.1M Sunday (-18%).
The traditional irony with the first weekend in May — which has been dominated by a Marvel superhero title 10 times since 2002 when Spider-Man opened the floodgates with a $114.8M bow — is the huge amount of money the frame generates with so few kids out of school. Per Rentrak Theatrical there’s only 2.5% public schools out today.
Commenting on this, Rentrak Senior Media Analyst Paul Dergarbedian points out, Since so many kids are still in school in early May it would seem almost counter intuitive that the first weekend in May has become one of the most coveted dates on the calendar. However, studios smartly realized that it’s the movies that define the viability of the release date and not the other way around. One need only look at the recent record breaking successes in the months of March and April to see that there is no limitation on which release corridors can and do spawn massive box office numbers.
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