Yoopya with The Conversation
After an unprecedented political comeback and sweeping victory, Donald Trump will soon be the 47th US president, the first in over 120 years to win a second non-consecutive term. He is also the first convicted felon and twice-impeached president to be re-elected.
But historic firsts aside, what does this mean for Europe, and how can EU countries prepare for four more years of Trump? During his last term, Trump was no friend to Europe, but the “good” news is that this time around, EU leaders know what to expect, as Trump has made his intentions very clear.
He claims he will end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours and bury Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. He will also levy 10% to 20% tariffs on all European imports (and 60% duties on all Chinese imports), and plans to pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change for the second time.
His return will also have a huge impact on European politics, emboldening far-right parties who embrace his stance on immigration and national identity. In short, Trump will further destabilise the global order and undermine multilateralism, transatlantic relations, and European unity.
Security and NATO under threat
In anticipation of Trump pulling the plug on Ukraine and potentially NATO, European nations must immediately step up their defence capabilities and spend at least 2% of GDP on defence.
This is crucial for two reasons. Firstly, EU members must finally come to terms with the need to rely on one another for defence and security. Secondly, this would send a positive signal to Trump, who has repeatedly accused NATO allies of not paying their dues.
It will also be essential to promote cooperation between EU countries with significant military-industrial complexes such as France, Italy, Spain, and Poland. This will spur European markets and create much needed innovation and economic growth.
Europe is already moving tentatively in this direction. The recent Draghi report, published in September this year, encourages EU countries to focus on their own arms industries instead of buying weapons from the US – currently, 63% of Europe’s arms come from the US.
EU countries may also consider taking on joint debt as a way to pool defence spending and arms procurement, and the European Investment Bank should lend money to EU countries for defence investments. This joint borrowing (by raising “eurobonds”) could also increase overall funds available to Kyiv, which will be especially important if Trump backs out of Ukraine.
Trade and tariffs
Trump’s protectionist intentions have been no secret – at a recent rally he said that “outside of love and religion, it’s the most beautiful word there is: tariff.”
EU leaders are very jittery about the threats of increased tariffs, as these could lead to a huge plunge in EU exports to the US, potentially impacting millions of jobs. The US-EU trade relationship is the largest in the world, standing at $1.3 trillion. EU-China trade, for comparison, is a distant $758 billion.
Machinery, vehicles, and chemicals – sectors which represented 68% of EU exports to the US in 2023 – would be affected most. Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Belgium would be most exposed to a drop in bilateral trade.
To Trump-proof itself against high tariffs, the EU must turn towards other regional markets. It should, for instance, finally ratify the Mercosur agreement and pursue other regional alliances to reduce its reliance on US demand.
The bloc should also try to negotiate before opting for retaliatory tariffs. This already happened during the first Trump presidency, when Ursula Von der Leyen personally met with Trump and tried to secure more favourable terms of trade.
Given Trump’s volatility, this kind of personal negotiation may actually be essential in getting him to make trade agreements, such as exemptions for certain exported goods.
Democracy and the undermining of European values
Trump’s victory will energise and embolden far right parties across the EU who share his illiberal ideas on immigration and national identity, many of whom are EU and NATO sceptics like he is. Viktor Orbán of Hungary, for instance, recently said that he would celebrate a second Trump presidency with bottles of champagne.
Many of the EU’s far-right parties, including Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Netherlands’ Freedom Party, France’s National Rally (RN) and the Brothers of Italy, consider Trump to be the figurehead of their movement. They will want to foster closer ties with the US president, and will feel empowered to spread and normalise their ideas across the continent.
This can only undermine the fundamental democratic values upon which the EU was founded, and lead to greater tension in the social fabric of member countries.
To counter the rise of such anti-democratic forces, the EU cannot be equivocal, and should establish ways to sanction or even expel member countries who no longer adhere to its founding principles of democracy and human rights.
The EU can also limit their influence by, for instance, changing its voting systems. Many decisions made in Brussels currently require unanimous consensus among 27 countries, and this gives a smaller, more illiberal country like Hungary the power to block important decisions. Indeed, Orbán has blocked EU military and financial aid to Ukraine on several occasions.
This should no longer be allowed, and a simple change to voting systems – from unanimous to majority votes – would prevent the EU’s most extreme members from exerting a disproportionate level of power.
Such measures would not be enough to prevent the rise of illiberalism in the EU, but they could prevent it from derailing the continent’s democratic structures.
Can we Trump-proof Europe?
All of the above measures will require greater European unity and cooperation. The good news here is that past crises have spurred more collective action among EU members. The Eurozone crisis led to more fully integrated banking systems, the Covid pandemic led to joint purchases of vaccines for all EU countries and EU-wide borrowing to fund the economic recovery program, and the invasion of Ukraine prompted EU countries to rally in support of Kyiv.
Let’s hope a second Trump presidency leads to similar joint actions, strengthened unity, and more strategic autonomy. The immediate future of the EU depends on it.
Author:
Waya Quiviger | Professor of Practice of Gobal Governance and Development, IE University