St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, Tuesday, 4:07 p.m. ET. TV: Fox Sports 1
SAN FRANCISCO – The Giants are set to host the Cardinals for Game 3 of the National League Championship series, with each team having taken one game in the best-of-seven series to date. From what we’ve seen during these first two games in addition to what we’ve seen from these two clubs in the past five seasons, there’s good reason to believe this is gonna go down to the wire, with neither October sensation ready to go quietly.
This one takes place at 1:07 p.m. local time and 3:07 p.m. in St. Louis, so let’s make sure we have those (cough, cough) I feel sick, boss (cough, cough) calls down pat, shall we?
Pitching matchup: John Lackey (14-10, 3.82) vs. Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57)
Hudson vs. Cardinals hitters
First off, let us note that in Hudson’s 16-year career, that has spanned over 3,000 career innings and 214 regular-season victories, he has never pitched in this round. Before this season, he had made the playoffs six different times and his team lost each of those six Division Series rounds.
In the postseason, he’s 1-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 62 innings, but he was brilliant last time out in an outstanding pitcher’s duel with Jordan Zimmermann.
At home this year, Hudson was actually worse than on the road. He went 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA in 14 AT&T Park starts, despite the park usually being nicer to pitchers than hitters.
As far as against the Cardinals, Hudson did face them once this year and he dominated. On July 1, he allowed just three hits and two walks in seven scoreless innings while striking out six.
If we delve into Hudson vs. specific Cardinals hitters, we can at least glance at Matt Holliday. The two have faced each other 31 times, with Holliday hitting .336/.452/.385 with a double and five RBI. No one else who will play (remember, Yadier Molina is going to sit out) has seen Hudson more than 10 times.
Lackey vs. Giants hitters
Opposite of Hudson, Lackey has a ton of postseason experience and two World Series rings. In 111 career postseason innings, he is 7-5 with a 2.92 ERA. Much like Hudson, he was dominant in his previous postseason start, working seven innings, allowing one run and striking out eight.
On the road, Lackey is considerably worse than at home. Obviously, this includes some AL starts (Fenway Park being his home, etc.), but overall, he had a 2.94 ERA at home and 4.73 on the road this year. His NLDS start, where he threw real well, came at home.
He didn’t face the Giants this year and has only pitched in AT&T Park twice in his career, so we probably can’t draw any conclusions there. Speaking of which, only two Giants regulars have ever faced Lackey and each (Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval) only have done so three times. So that data — if you can even call it that — is not relevant.
What to watch
•The Giants have a pair of potential long relievers that haven’t thrown in the series. Tim Lincecum hasn’t been in a game in quite a while. It doesn’t feel like Bruce Bochy would go to him at this point unless he’s desperate. On the other hand, Yusmeiro Petit hasn’t thrown since Game 2 of the NLDS, when he was brilliant in six scoreless innings. The Giants may not be here without him. If Hudson runs into trouble early, it’s entirely possibly Bochy has a quick hook and rides Petit.
•Can the Cardinals really keep up this power surge? They hit just 105 homers in their 162 regular-season games, ranking dead last in the NL. So far in the postseason, they have 11 home runs in six games. And get this: Since Game 1 of the NLDS — a span of five games — they have scored just one run that didn’t come on a home run (Randal Grichuk’s RBI single in Game 2 of the NLCS). The worst home run park in the majors? San Francisco’s AT&T Park. Cue dramatic music.
•You’ll hear a lot of stuff about how pivotal Game 3 is. And, well, it literally is. It’s actually redundant to say as much. Here’s the thing, though: The last time one of these two teams trailed 2-1 during the NL playoffs, Cardinals were behind the Pirates in the NLDS last season. They’d win it. Before that, the Giants were behind the Cardinals in the 2012 NLCS. They would end up trailing 3-1 in that series, but still won it. So let’s not act like the Game 3 winner is taking this thing. Brace yourselves for a back and forth when you’re dealing with these two clubs.
As for the lineups, expect Molina to be out but otherwise nothing to change for either side, as noted in the off-day workouts.