Yoopya with The Conversation
During the recent United States presidential election campaign, tech billionaire Elon Musk’s social media platform X (formerly Twitter) saw record high usage.
The platform – and Musk in particular – played a pivotal role promoting the views of newly elected president Donald Trump.
This is something Musk was very proud of. When Trump’s victory became clear, Musk – who has just been confirmed as the head of a new US government agency called the Department of Government Efficiency – was quick to tell his more than 200 million followers on X:
You are the media now.
But who exactly will that be in the future? And how is X likely to change in the coming years during a second Trump presidency?
The ‘everything app’
Musk has been pretty clear about his plans for X ever since he became the owner and executive chairman of the platform in October 2022. At the time he infamously tweeted “let that sink in” with a visual “dad joke”.
Then, just over 12 months later, he told X employees that he wanted to make X into an “everything app” for the US.
He aims to create a platform for messages, payments, video and more, similar to China’s WeChat. He will now be able to do this with increased capital. At time of writing, Musk’s net worth is estimated to have skyrocketed by around US$70 billion since the election, to a total of more than US$300 billion.
Musk, and therefore X, is also poised to take a bigger role in day-to-day US politics – and not just in his newly announced role, which will see him in charge of cutting government spending.
Since the election he has already posted with thoughts and polls on cutting government spending, who should be US senate majority leader and deregulation (along with another “let that sink in” dad joke, this time to the Oval Office).
Research indicates he has also recently tweaked X’s algorithm to boost his own posts.
However, it’s not all rosy for Musk. He is currently facing a class action lawsuit over his US$1 million-a-day giveaway in the lead-up to the presidential election, with registered voters who signed his petition for a chance to win now claiming it was a fraud.
Surging misinformation
Conspiracy theories have already been observed spreading on X since last week’s election, this time including claims of election interference from the political left.
This is a problem, as X’s current approach to fact-checking misinformation relies on the crowd-sourced Community Notes feature, where users contribute and vote on fact-checks to posts.
Recent research has shown that Community Notes does not work at reducing engagement with misinformation. Even though Musk claimed, last year, that Community Notes “will be the single best source of truth on the internet, period”.
Meanwhile, numerous studies show that misinformation continues to rise on X, including on US politics.
The advance of generative AI tools and automation only increases the potential for things like foreign influence operations on X in the future.
Musk has also stripped academic researchers of access to data on X. Other platforms like Facebook and Reddit have done the same.
This makes it more difficult than ever to determine the exact extent and severity of misinformation on the platform.
Cyberbalkanisation
So, with an increasing focus on right-wing US politics, and greater likelihood of misinformation, who is likely to remain on X during the second Trump term?
Since the election, alternative social media platform Bluesky has reportedly gained 1 million members as some users of X attempt to flee the perceived far-right platform.
Our own analysis of Google Trends search data from the US suggests a similar story.
There was a brief increase in searches for Trump’s own social media platform, Truth Social, on election night – presumably as viewers wondered what Trump was saying as results rolled in.
However, since then there has been an increase in US users searching for Bluesky, which has not dropped down to pre-election day levels throughout the following weekend. For comparison, we do not see similar trends in other countries such as Australia, or an increase in search traffic for other social media platforms such as Mastodon, a smaller X alternative, or Threads.
Despite this, X remains much larger than BlueSky, Threads and Truth Social by a large margin.
If these trends are sustained, it might be evidence of “cyberbalkanisation”. This is where the internet splits into separated communities or tribes that do not communicate with each other.
The effects of this can include greater confirmation bias within those communities, and lower resilience to disinformation or foreign influence.
Analysis suggests the US already has low resilience to disinformation of this sort.
Unfortunately, these risks appear set to increase for X and its users into the future as we head into Trump’s second term.
Authors:
Lewis Mitchell | Professor of Data Science; Director, Adelaide Data Science Centre, University of Adelaide
Jono Tuke | Senior Lecturer, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide
Melissa Humphries | Senior Lecturer, School of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide