Arizona, where Romney enjoyed considerable advantages, was not a contest. Michigan, where he was born and raised, never should have been.
But Rick Santorum turned the race there into a pitched battle and almost prevailed, despite a lack of organization, a huge financial disadvantage, a series of controversial statements and a poorly reviewed debate performance.
Romney did not so much win Michigan as escape with his life.
That is the good news. Although the margin — about 3% — was unimpressive, a victory is a victory and his Michigan performance should help Romney as the contest moves to Super Tuesday next week in close to a dozen states.
Just as significant, Romney’s twin victories should quiet, if not silence, the nervous discussion within GOP ranks about his gaffe-prone candidacy and the desire for someone — who may exist only in myth — to leap into the race and suddenly inspire underwhelmed Republican voters.
The lack of enthusiasm for the current choices has been striking.
At one time Republicans figured all they had to do this year was stand by and watch as the party faithful and like-minded independents flocked to the polls, eager to oust President Obama.
That has not happened.
Preliminary figures indicated another low turnout Tuesday, repeating a pattern seen since the first GOP contests last month in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Of the Arizonans who bothered to vote, only about half said they strongly favored the candidate for whom they had just cast a ballot. Only three in four told exit pollsters they would definitely support the Republican nominee in the fall contest against President Obama.
Should the Massachusetts governor emerge as the party standard-bearer, he will clearly have some work to do before November.
But a bigger problem for Romney is the fact that the longer the race goes on, the greater the toll seems to be on his candidacy. Nothing that happened Tuesday will discourage former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum from pressing forward, along with Texas Rep. Ron Paul and a newly flush Newt Gingrich.
The former House speaker, who is staking his candidacy on yet another comeback Super Tuesday, received a huge financial boost this week from billionaire Sheldon Adelson, the chief donor to a “super PAC” benefiting Gingrich; it immediately launched a new flight of attack ads, signaling no let-up in the acrimonious tone of the campaign.
The mud-flinging can’t help but soil Romney. But as problematic is the direction of the campaign dialogue.
Santorum may be the one talking about the separation of church and state and the availability of contraceptives. But Romney can’t help but be drawn into the discussion.
In 2010, independents turned overwhelmingly against Obama and the Democrats, fueling the Republican’s midterm landslide and their takeover of the House. For a time, Romney enjoyed a double-digit lead over the president among those unaligned voters.
But more recent surveys have shown Obama leading among independents, who serve as something of a tie-breaker in the country’s deeply polarized politics. They care far more about jobs and the economy than godliness and debates over morality.
On Monday, Santorum’s campaign manager, Michael Biundo, told ABC News, “I honestly don’t feel like it matters where we end up on Election Day. No matter what happens — win or lose — Romney will come out of here damaged.”
That may be good for Santorum and his hopes of seizing the nomination from the GOP frontrunner. But it’s not good for Romney or a party whose hopes increasingly seem invested in his success.
The former governor picked up a substantial chunk of delegates Tuesday and steadied his campaign. “Now he needs to follow up … with a majority of delegates” on Super Tuesday, March 6, said independent campaign analyst Charlie Cook. “If that happens, the nomination will be his.”
If not — and if this campaign has shown anything, it is the danger of predictions — Romney may be back on a cliff’s edge, teetering while Republican Party leaders watch in terror.
