By Christian Lowe and Hamid
Ould Ahmed
ALGIERS (Reuters) – Algeria votes on Thursday in a parliamentary election its rulers hope will deflect
pressure for change after the “Arab Spring” upheavals, but many people will show their scepticism by
abstaining.
in Algiers May 9, 2012. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra
Last year’s revolts in the region left
Algeria largely untouched, but it is now under pressure to reform and renew the ageing establishment that has ruled the
country without interruption since independence from France half a century ago.
The authorities in Algeria, which
supplies about a fifth of Europe’s imported natural gas, have responded by promising a steady transition towards more
democracy, starting with Thursday’s vote.
The election is likely to be the fairest and most transparent in 20 years,
even though diplomats say it could be flawed. It is expected to give the biggest share of seats in parliament to moderate
Islamists, mirroring the trend since the “Arab Spring” in countries such as Egypt and Tunisia.
In a speech on Tuesday,
President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, 75, appealed to the country’s young people to vote and embrace the opportunity for
change.
“I’m addressing the young people who must take over the baton because my generation has had its time,” he
said. “The country is in your hands. Take care of it.”
However, many Algerians distrust the promises of reform. The
election is shaping up to be less a contest between political parties and more a tug-of-war between the authorities and a
large contingent who think voting is pointless.
“No one deserves my vote. I have been living in a two-room apartment
with my five children for years. This election is no different from previous ones. I’m sure it will change nothing,” said
Abdelghani, a 46-year-old worker at a coffee shop.
Others were less vehement, but still not planning to vote. “It’s a
day off. I’ll take advantage of this opportunity to go on a trip with my children,” said Kader, a 37-year-old bank
employee.
LITTLE APPETITE FOR REVOLT
Many Algerians believe elections are futile because real power, they say,
lies with an informal network which is commonly known by the French term “le pouvoir,” or “the power,” and has its roots in
the security forces.
Officials deny this and say the country is run by democratically elected
officials.
Diplomats predict as few as 35 percent of those who are eligible will vote. That would be embarrassing for
the authorities. They had hoped a big turnout would give them fresh legitimacy in a year when lavish celebrations are planned
for the 50th anniversary of independence.
Nevertheless, there is little appetite in Algeria for a revolt. Energy
revenues have lifted living standards, and people look with alarm at the bloodshed in neighbouring Libya after its “Arab
Spring” insurrection.
In Algeria, a conflict in the 1990s between security forces and Islamist insurgents, which
killed an estimated 200,000 people, still casts a shadow. The fighting started after the military-backed government annulled
an election which Islamists were poised to win.
The Islamists set to dominate the 462-seat parliament after
Thursday’s election are a different proposition.
The strongest Islamist bloc, the Green Alliance, are moderates with
close ties to the establishment. Several of their leaders are already government ministers. Bouteflika could appoint one of
them as the next prime minister.
The Islamists are on course to displace two secularist parties, also loyal to the
establishment, who dominate the outgoing parliament.
There are no exit polls, and first results are not expected until
they are unveiled by the Interior Ministry on Friday.
“There is a very strong chance that the Green Algeria alliance
will win a plurality of seats,” said Geoff Porter of North Africa Risk Consulting.
“Islamist leadership in the
parliament, however, is likely to avoid the more difficult issues of political reform, foreign affairs and broader economic
policy,” he said.
